A U.S. Response to China’s
Expanding Influence in Africa

Key Trends:

• China’s Trade and Investment Dominance
  • China-Africa trade surged to $192 billion in 2023, over 4x U.S.-Africa trade ($70 billion).
  • PRC’s FDI stock reached $44.4 billion, nearly matching the U.S. but with broader sectoral reach: 25% infrastructure, 20% services, and 15% manufacturing.

• Strategic Sector Penetration
  • Huawei controls 70% of Africa’s 4G telecom networks.
  • Only 12% of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects include local training, hindering skills development.

• Trade Surplus Gaps
  • China recorded an $82.7 billion surplus with Africa in 2023, driven by value-added exports (machinery and electronics).
  • U.S. surplus totaled $11.2 billion, 63% of which came from energy imports, showing continued extractive reliance.

• U.S. Pullback Risks
  • The possible lapse of AGOA in 2025 threatens over 350,000 African jobs, with vulnerable countries like Lesotho at risk of economic collapse.
  • Rising U.S. tariffs and limited new market access signal strategic disengagement from African economies.

Opportunities for U.S. Reengagement:

1. Infrastructure and Green Energy Leadership

• The $600 million Lobito Corridor (U.S.-EU funded) and $2.5 billion in solar/EV investments signal momentum.
• DFC’s $1 billion investment in logistics offers a scalable model for AfCFTA-aligned trade corridors.

2. Digital Competition and Data Sovereignty

• U.S. tech giants now hold 35% of Africa’s cloud market, countering Chinese telecom dominance.
• Promoting open, secure digital infrastructure can become a pillar of U.S. soft power and governance alignment.

3. Strategic Mineral Security

• Partnerships with DR Congo and Zambia to secure cobalt and copper challenge China’s grip on 65% of global cobalt refining.
• Coordinated energy security and supply chain initiatives can reduce U.S. vulnerability in critical tech sectors.

4. Health Diplomacy as a Counterweight

• Pfizer’s $500 million investment in African vaccine production counters China’s “health silk road” and strengthens public health capacity.

Recommendations:

1. Modernize and Extend AGOA

• Renew AGOA with updated criteria to incentivize value-added production, especially in textiles, agribusiness, and light manufacturing.
• Expand eligibility to include investment facilitation, regional value chains, and digital trade access.

      2. Incentivize U.S. Private Sector Engagement

• Deploy blended finance and risk mitigation tools through DFC and EXIM Bank to stimulate U.S. investment beyond extractives.
• Prioritize sectors where U.S. firms maintain a competitive edge—green tech, agribusiness, logistics, and cloud services.

      3. Double Down on Digital and Data Governance

• Promote U.S.-Africa digital compacts focused on data privacy, open standards, and infrastructure financing.
• Expand training and local content policies in tech investments to counteract Huawei’s control.

     4. Reclaim the Narrative

• Reinforce public diplomacy and local engagement, including Afrobarometer-informed campaigns that highlight U.S. transparency, innovation, and job creation.
• Develop joint U.S.-African storytelling platforms to differentiate American values from extractive or opaque alternatives.

Conclusion:

The U.S. must respond decisively to the PRC’s expanding influence in Africa or risk ceding long-term strategic ground. This means moving beyond rhetoric toward actionable investments, deeper trade engagement, and credible digital partnerships. Africa’s trajectory will shape the global order for decades to come—Washington cannot afford to be a bystander.

About the Authors:
Together, the authors bring 50 years of experience in trade, investment, and U.S. foreign policy,
including 30 years of on-the-ground work in unstable and politically contested environments.